Forecasting the effects of bioclimatic characteristics and climate change on the potential distribution of Colophospermum mopane in southern Africa using Maximum Entropy (Maxent)

Global climate change is gradually altering species distribution and spatial patterns of diversity. Yet, climatic factors influencing the local habitat preferences for southern African remain largely unexplored. As such, predicting identifying environmental covariates that promote range expansion will be critical in developing management protocols biodiversity protection. Maxent, a model algorithm applies maximum entropy machine learning technique, used this study to map geographical distributions appropriate habitats Colophospermum mopane (J.Kirk ex Benth.) J. Léonard Africa under current future scenarios. We identified highest contributors modelled calculated changes (expansion or loss) C. three Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2050s 2070s. Our results showed was mainly influenced by solar radiation, annual temperature range, precipitation. also observe distributed continuously Africa, from Angola northern Namibia central-southern Mozambique, with total occurrence area 1,281,242 km2. According response curves, preferred precipitation 130–200 mm, an 22–28 °C, elevations about 500–1000 m above sea level. Under scenarios, suitable areas reduced significantly limits potential while they expanded limits. Overall, likely expand least (4.08–4.46%) decline most (8.83–10.08%) extreme scenario RCP8.5, depending on year. Although there lack consensus among various RCPs, it clear radiation limit mopane. This knowledge important landscape planners rangeland managers working safeguard extinction.